Is it a time to be bullish?
If you followed my Twitter feed (https://x.com/SuperiorProfit), you would know I stopped being bullish and closed my long swing trades yesterday 24th Jul 2024 (a nice day, what a coincidence of having 24-24 in the date). I tweeted about that decision during market hours. I could decide that based on CUE breadth insights.
Now is the time to explain that in more detail.
There is a unique CUE chart pattern that has worked out with remarkable accuracy both at the top and at the bottom. For the top, it is a chart at PriceExtremeHigh (high price), at JumpThrustHigh (jumping up with acceleration from that high price), and then suddenly followed by a BigMoveDown3 (the parent of all bearish momentum). I hypothesize that it is due to selling by big players - not small traders like myself. And that selling is often not completed in one day. More down move usually follows.
Do we have that pattern today (and in some instruments in recent days)? The answer is YES, across the board.
That is a very good reason to stop being bullish at the market level.
1. USA Total View - the broadest of market representaion has that pattern today. It has nearby trendline support in both weekly and daily. If those are broken, it is not only time to stop being bullish. One may start looking for short swing trades too.
2. Leaders Index represent leaders. The is to create that custom index when the market is strongly going up - based on the leaders of that time. And then watch when it breaks down. If even the leaders break, the market rally is usually over for the time. That has happened today. And it borke below treneldine support with BigMoveDown3 at PriceExtremeHigh. What is more? It even underperformed the market.
3. Mega-Cap custom index has the same heavy-selling-at-unsustainable-top pattern. Once again, the bearish Headwind in weekly cauthgt the very top. As you know (if you are follwing my YouTube videos https://www.youtube.com/c/TradingProfitably), I shorted several mega-caps since then and profited from that.
Could you also profit from that?
4. Market external view using ETFs - $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM all three have displayed the same heavy-selling-at-unsustainable-top pattern.
5. Sector-industry-stock breadth from CUE Edge - Not only technical weakness, the weakness is in sector-industry-stock breadth across the board. It is changing from bullishness to bearishness.
6. Technical Breadth from CUE Finder - that is essential part of trading profitably to decide preferred tradign direction. That too has nothing to be bullish as of today. The Headwind alert is saying more downside is likely.
7. CUE Market Breadth Total View, a single-chart internal health check of the market, had warned about this weakenss ahead of time using Hindenburg Omen and Bango breadth weakeneing signals at the top. Those warning seem to be coming into fruition now. Did you pay heed to them? I always do.
However you see it, the market is pointing to further weakness ahead. And I am not bullish at present for swing trading purposes. I am starting to look for shorts.
What is your view of the market and how are you managing your positions? Are you protecting longs? Are you looking for shorts?
Do you have a system that can help you decide those with ease and without ambiguity?